Modeling: Spread of epidemics

Background Epidemics (like the recent Avian Flu) are still an important threat to humans and animals. It is therefore important to understand their dynamics in order to try to control them. Mathematical tools can be very useful for this.

Goal: The goal of the project is to understand and analyze (with computer simulations) simple models of epidemic spread.

Mathematical tools: This project uses differential equations (or dynamical systems). A short introduction to differential equations will be provided. A mathematical software for performing simulations (matlab) will also be used.

Biological or Medical aspects: It will be discussed how those models can be used for determining public health policies (like vaccination) and what are their limitations

Supervisor: Micha Hersch

Students: Bruno Pais and Didier Languetin

References:

Miklos Farkas, Dynamical Models in Biology, Chapter 3, Academic Press, 2001 Media:FarkasChap3.pdf

Mathematical background

See the Introduction to dynamical systems and differential equations

Powerpoint utilisé lors de notre présentation du projet (25.05.2009) :

File:Projet spread of epidemics rougeole.ppt

Modèles et commandes utilisés pour modéliser la rougeole sur le campus de l'Unil-EPFL (2008/2009) :

File:Modèle de la rougeole sur 2 sites avec parametres optimisés et avec vaccin.pdf

File:Modèle de la rougeole sur 2 sites avec parametres optimisés et sans vaccin.pdf